Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 795 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 795 · RAP → ORD

departs 1:39 PM MT · arrives 4:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±3 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RAP

Weather at each end

RAP (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 795 · RAP → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?