Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8131 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Yesterday

UA 8131 · DEN → SMF

departs 7:39 PM MT · arrives 9:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at DEN that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8131 · DEN → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?