Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8150 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Yesterday

UA 8150 · DEN → SEA

departs 8:48 PM MT · arrives 10:23 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at DEN that day

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.41 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8150 · DEN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?