Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8157 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Yesterday

UA 8157 · DEN → IND

departs 5:47 PM MT · arrives 10:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at DEN that day

↓ IND usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8157 · DEN → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?