Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8162 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 8162 · ORD → JAX

departs 10:32 AM CT · arrives 1:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8162 · ORD → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?