Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8164 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 8164 · ORD → MCI

departs 9:00 AM CT · arrives 10:34 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8164 · ORD → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?