Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8167 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Yesterday

UA 8167 · SFO → LAS

departs 10:48 PM PT · arrives 12:35 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8167 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?