Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8169 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 8169 · DEN → BZN

departs 7:06 PM MT · arrives 8:53 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BZN?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDM

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BZN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8169 · DEN → BZN

Odds over time

How late will it get to BZN?