Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8195 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Yesterday

UA 8195 · DEN → SAN

departs 8:55 PM MT · arrives 10:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at DEN that day

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8195 · DEN → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?