Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8234 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Yesterday

UA 8234 · DEN → ATW

departs 5:40 PM MT · arrives 9:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ATW?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at DEN that day

↓ ATW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

ATW (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling10,571 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8234 · DEN → ATW

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATW?