Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8250 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 8250 · SFO → RDU

departs 2:21 PM PT · arrives 10:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8250 · SFO → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?