Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VIVA AEROBUS · FLIGHT VB 164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
VB 164 · MEX → SAT
departs 1:19 PM CST · arrives 4:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX
↓
VB's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MEX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.