Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 109
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 109 · PVR → HOU
departs 1:44 PM CST · arrives 5:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave PVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PVR
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
PVR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PVR (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.