Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 1161 · LAX → RNO
departs 9:21 PM PT · arrives 10:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 30%
Mon 11/2 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.