Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1213
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 1213 · SAN → SJD
departs 11:16 AM PT · arrives 1:38 PM MST
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SJD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SAN are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SAN is busy at that time
↓
Arrivals into SJD at that hour are usually not late
↓
SJD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
SJD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.