WN 1225 · CLE → PHX

left the gate 6:44 PM ET · taxiing (scheduled 6:44 PM ET → 8:08 PM MT)

Your aircraft is N8871Q (B38M), coming in as WN 4778 from BNA: landed 5:35 PM ET.

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE

↓ CLE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLE (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1225 · CLE → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?