WN 1268 · CMH → PHX

departs 5:36 PM ET · arrives 6:59 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

↓ CMH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.56 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1268 · CMH → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?