Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1272
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 1272 · ONT → SMF
departs 1:43 PM PT · arrives 3:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from ONT are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.01 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.