Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1280
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 1280 · PHX → COS
departs 1:37 PM MT · arrives 4:24 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±7 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at COS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to COS?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at COS
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.65 in
COS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.