Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 133
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 133 · PHX → STL
departs 12:47 PM MT · arrives 5:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 30%
Wed 11/4 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±2 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.65 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.