Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 1417 · DAL → MEM
departs 12:24 PM CT · arrives 2:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 21%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,767 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.