Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1486
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 1486 · BNA → LGB
departs 3:24 PM CT · arrives 5:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 27%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 19%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGB (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.