WN 1498 · MCI → SAT

took off 6:45 PM CT · expected to land 8:23 PM CT (scheduled 6:10 PM CT → 8:23 PM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

LIVE

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from MCI are often late

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

SAT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1498 · MCI → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?