Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1507
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 1507 · RSW → MKE
departs 10:01 AM ET · arrives 12:07 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 19%
Mon 11/2 13%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MKE at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
10am departures from RSW are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MKE (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.