Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1513
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 1513 · MSY → SAT
departs 2:15 PM CT · arrives 3:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 433 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from MSY are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 433 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.