Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 15 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

WN 15 · DAL → HOU

departs 9:57 AM CT · arrives 11:15 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL

↓ Arrivals into HOU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 15 · DAL → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?