WN 1651 · RNO → LAS

departs 5:09 AM PT · arrives 6:34 AM PT

Your aircraft is N8724J (B38M), coming in as WN 4581 from LAS: landed 11:53 PM PT.

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ RNO is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1651 · RNO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?