Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1686 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

WN 1686 · SAN → LAS

departs 1:08 PM PT · arrives 2:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±6 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1686 · SAN → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?