Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1729
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 1729 · DEN → PHX
departs 2:15 PM MT · arrives 3:16 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±14 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.71 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.