WN 172 · SMF → DAL

departs 3:59 PM PT · arrives 9:27 PM CT

Your aircraft is N8550Q (B738), coming in as WN 1926 from LAS: landed 3:41 PM PT.

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

94% chance · ±0 pts +66 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DAL?

On time or early
6%
15–30 min late
70%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DAL (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 172 · SMF → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?