Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1740
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 1740 · AUS → MCO
departs 4:00 PM CT · arrives 7:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 467 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip 0.14 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.