Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 1783 · MDW → PHX
departs 4:01 PM CT · arrives 5:32 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±6 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
MDW is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 10,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.71 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.