WN 1854 · ATL → LAS

took off 8:56 PM ET · expected to land 9:44 PM PT (scheduled 7:51 PM ET → 9:14 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

98% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

LIVE

On time or early
2%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
73%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1854 · ATL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?