WN 1860 · LAS → TPA

took off 5:18 PM PT · expected to land 12:15 AM ET (scheduled 4:57 PM PT → 12:29 AM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

1% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at TPA that day

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

TPA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1860 · LAS → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?