Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 186 · AMA → AUS
departs 3:15 PM CT · arrives 4:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 29%
Wed 11/4 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±4 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at AMA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 467 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
Weather at each end
AMA (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.85 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.