Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1892
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 1892 · ELP → SAT
departs 9:15 AM MT · arrives 11:54 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi forecast at SAT that day
↑
SAT is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
9am departures from ELP are usually not late
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2.66667 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.