Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1926
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 1926 · LAS → SMF
departs 1:36 PM PT · arrives 3:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±9 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.