Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 192
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 192 · ATL → AUS
departs 6:35 PM ET · arrives 7:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 35%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 13%
Mon 11/2 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.