WN 1943 · SAN → LAS

took off 6:34 PM PT · expected to land 7:23 PM PT (scheduled 4:22 PM PT → 5:45 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
94%
Over 2 hours late
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 4pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

LAS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1943 · SAN → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?