Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1946 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

WN 1946 · MDW → GRR

departs 9:34 AM CT · arrives 11:37 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GRR?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Arrivals into GRR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GRR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1946 · MDW → GRR

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRR?