WN 1973 · HNL → OAK

departs 1:28 PM HT · arrives 9:21 PM PT

Your aircraft is N8797Q (B38M), coming in as WN 3172 from LAS: landed 11:34 AM HT.

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +32 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
38%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

OAK (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1973 · HNL → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?