Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1996
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 1996 · CUN → STL
departs 2:39 PM EST · arrives 5:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 9%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CUN (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.