Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2021
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 2021 · SJD → PHX
departs 2:14 PM MST · arrives 4:26 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 28%
Wed 11/4 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave SJD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
Weather at each end
SJD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.71 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.