WN 2023 · AUS → PHX

took off 7:08 PM CT · expected to land 7:07 PM MT (scheduled 6:23 PM CT → 6:57 PM MT)

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
47%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.26 in

PHX (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2023 · AUS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?