Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2084
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 2084 · SAN → LAS
departs 1:58 PM PT · arrives 3:19 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±7 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.