Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2104
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 2104 · HOU → OKC
departs 2:27 PM CT · arrives 4:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 36%
Wed 11/4 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at OKC that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
OKC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OKC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.47 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.