Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2139
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 2139 · HRL → AUS
departs 11:53 AM CT · arrives 1:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave HRL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 467 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↓
11am departures from HRL are usually not late
↓
HRL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HRL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 3.66667 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.