Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2146
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 2146 · PHX → SNA
departs 2:37 PM MT · arrives 4:02 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±8 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
34%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.71 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.