Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2170
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 2170 · DEN → TUS
departs 1:23 PM MT · arrives 2:35 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
↑
1pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.