WN 2203 · JAX → AUS

departs 6:49 PM ET · arrives 8:39 PM CT

Your aircraft is N8924Q (B38M), coming in as WN 4987 from MDW: landed 5:54 PM ET.

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,133 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,033 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2203 · JAX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?